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6 September 2023
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In today's fast-paced world, consumers are looking for convenience and simplicity in all aspects of their lives, preferably in real time. Payments are no exception. Retailers, on the other hand, are under increasing cost pressure and expect low fees, not least because few are aware that there are costs associated with cash management. The demand for a seamless payment experience has put pressure on payment service providers to develop new and innovative payment methods. In most cases, however, this has come at the cost of increased complexity and expense, making it difficult for them to deliver the fee reductions that merchants expect. Ultimately, the developments that best resolve this paradox are likely to prevail. All the studies on payment behavior and, more tellingly, on payment preferences in a variety of contexts paint a clear picture: simple, fast, and secure payments are becoming increasingly important to consumers, banks, and merchants.
However, despite all the optimism, it is often underestimated that while technological innovation is accelerating, consumers are still clinging to old habits. Reaching critical mass therefore depends on a number of factors that are not always directly controllable. A typical example is contactless payment, which began to take off in many European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The external circumstances meant that even people who had no liking for cards immediately recognized the simplicity and convenience of this payment method. Although the trend has leveled off somewhat, we can assume that it is sustainable. Contactless payment, whether by card, mobile phone, or smartwatch, has become the standard. A clear sign of this is the fact that this trend can now be observed across all generations, i.e., by no means only among digital natives. Only the medium used still depends on the generation – wearables are currently much more common among the trendsetters of the younger generation.
However, the further away from established patterns of behavior and the more futuristic the scenario, the greater the differences in acceptance between age groups or different cultural backgrounds. In some cultures, for example, the idea of leaving a store without visibly paying causes discomfort and is almost perceived as stealing. Sharing a bill among friends, as has become common in Switzerland with TWINT, is still seen as breaking a social norm in southern Europe.
More and more customer groups prefer to pay digitally. However, some people – especially the elderly – are not prepared to give up cash. The trend varies greatly from country to country: in Scandinavia, the proportion of cash fans is less than 5%, and legislators and the central bank have already had to take measures to ensure the supply of cash. Discussions in the media show that the “battle of faith" is still in full swing – for example, when festival organizers insist on allowing only cash. We also refer to this development as the “digital divide”: the gap between those who have enthusiastically or out of necessity embraced the digitalization of the world and those who, for various reasons, do not want to or cannot embrace this development. In both cases, this development must not lead to the exclusion of certain groups. The payment industry also has a social responsibility in this regard.
The biggest challenge is putting the necessary technologies at the service of a positive customer experience: Authentication solutions must be easy and intuitive to use, while the technology should be as invisible as possible. The most promising approach is the intelligent use of biometrics. From fingerprints to voice and facial recognition, what seemed futuristic just a few years ago is now standard practice. Well-integrated multi-factor authentication processes can also help to serve user groups that have been excluded or even disadvantaged by digitalization by making the cumbersome entry of 16-digit card numbers and the memorization and entry of PINs a thing of the past.
Digitization has not stopped on the acceptance side either: Solutions such as “Tap on Mobile” turn Android smartphones into mobile terminals for card payments with PIN entry for higher amounts, including a digital receipt with a QR code. Development is well underway for further use for payments in cars, hotels, self-service kiosks, and ticket machines.
There are many mobile payment solutions around the world. However, when we cross national borders, we find that interoperability between solutions is not yet a given; it is a challenge that we have to meet.
Account-based payment methods and real-time payments are becoming increasingly important and are developing into an alternative to card payments, at least for e-commerce or domestic payments. For international payments in face-to-face business, the major systems still have a market advantage that should not be underestimated, thanks to their global network optimized over decades. Last but not least, card-based payments, with their proven fraud management, offer a high level of consumer protection. Nevertheless, we can expect an increasing convergence of payment methods, supported by the appropriate technologies.
Examples from large markets such as China (WeChat Pay and Alipay), Southeast Asia (proprietary systems), and India show that QR code-based solutions have a great chance of success for broad market penetration. Although their use is still largely limited to domestic payments, the superapps in particular have already gained significant market share in some cases. In Southeast Asia, players are already working on the interoperability of these country solutions. Smartphones are now widely used in emerging markets, the payment experience is simple, they can be set up quickly, and they can be used for both distance and retail transactions.
The examples of TWINT in Switzerland, SWISH in Sweden, and IDEAL in the Netherlands show that such solutions, with a high level of acceptance in stores, restaurants, and online shops, can develop relatively quickly into an indispensable tool for cashless payment transactions and significantly support the trend towards mobile payments. European payment service provider Worldline, for example, predicts that 10% of all payments worldwide will be account-to-account payments within the next five years.
As the Internet of Things becomes more widespread, we can expect to see more and more payment solutions where the payment is triggered by a device or software solution. Such payments are called autonomous payments. While these may be cheaper to operate, they add a great deal of complexity to the payment infrastructure. Payment service providers must continually invest in technology and infrastructure to effectively manage the complexity associated with autonomous payments. This is the only way to ensure the efficient and smooth operation of their payment systems and provide the highest level of service to their customers.
Today, the payment process itself is often completely invisible because it runs in the background and is therefore invisible to the consumer. We see this in everyday life, for example when we pay regularly for subscribed services (e.g., Netflix, Amazon, LinkedIn). Autonomous payments will accelerate this trend, creating new challenges for both merchants and banks. This trend is already evident in superapps.
Emerging payment trends seek to address the challenges of today’s payment system. They aim to increase convenience for consumers, reduce the complexity of the payment infrastructure, and lower costs for merchants.
Against this backdrop, instant payments will inevitably grow in importance. They are not yet ready to dominate global payments, but much is being done to drive their adoption. This includes several factors, such as ease of use, which is an important factor in the adoption of digital payments, but not sufficient on its own. The same is true for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which more than 100 central banks are actively researching and working on. For the European Central Bank, Worldline is developing a prototype to ensure that individuals can make offline transactions using the digital euro.
Whether CBDC, card, or account-based, the success of any payment solution depends on the benefits and incentives that consumers and merchants perceive. Understanding the needs and preferences of the target audience and offering a compelling value proposition can drive adoption and sustainable usage. Technology is equally important: it must enable digital payments but remain seamless and invisible. The focus must be on the security and reliability of transactions. This builds trust and leads to greater adoption and usage.
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